First Ohio Home Finance

In between the stock market volatility and emergency rate cuts and recession talk, last week was full of headlines like talking about home prices at decade lows, linking investment losses to housing gloom, and drawing parallels between current markets and the Great Depression.”

So what is all the noise about?

I find Joe Peffer’s blog particularly helpful as a window into the local markets. There aren’t many Realtors having these kinds of open conversation online, and his is certainly one of the best. Here’s a brief excerpt from Friday’s “nutshell” post.

“Remember that most media stories are greatly effected by larger east and west coast markets and that all Real Estate is Local. Here are some facts and figures on our market, here in Central Ohio.

• Last year was the third highest number of sales ever in Central Ohio. Yes, it was down 4.5% from 2005 and the average sale price is down a `whopping’ 1%, but it was still a good year. Today, compared to 2004, only 3 years ago, we have sold close to the same number of houses and the average sales price is up nearly 3%.
• Inventory levels are at record highs providing prospective homebuyers with the best selection of homes in the history of central Ohio!
• Our home prices are very competitive. Right now, there are more homes for sale than buyers to buy them. The result is that sellers are pricing their homes to compete. As the market corrects itself, home prices will start to increase again. So, buyers should act now while homes are priced to sell!!!
• There are still many great loan programs for deserving buyers.
• The recent Fed cut is good news! Even though a Fed rate cut doesn’t necessarily spell lower mortgage rates, it does mean good news for housing.”

Here’s another great point from Joe:

“Why was the average sales price in Central Ohio down 1%?

• First, because for much of the year we had roughly ten homes on the market for every buyer, many homeowners were forced to drop the selling price of their home in order to compete.
• Second, we had 22 percent fewer homes sell in the $1 million dollar range. Homeowners resistance to drop the price as well as lenders’ temporary aversion toward jumbo loans likely had impact here
• And third, we saw 124 percent more homes sell for less than $30,000. Many of these lower priced homes were purchased by investors who recognized just how favorable the 2007 housing market was and took full advantage of these conditions.”

One last note you will find interesting is this controversy in Massachusetts (and probably a great deal of other places now) where a bankers’ trade group is reporting single-family home sales were down twice as far as the Realtor’s association reported. And average home prices were down 5 times what the Realtor’s reported. The discrepancy apparently stems from the Realtor’s group NOT including homes sold by owner - without a real estate agent.

In my mind, what this issue highlights is that the RESULTS of one’s home sale are much worse when you try to save money by cutting out reputable local professionals. There are dozens of good Realtors in our market. Chances are you will sell your home faster and for more money if you use one.

Ask me if you are interested in buying a home. We will make sure you get a thorough pre-approval and one of the best Realtors in our market. Nothing makes your home purchase smoother!

The Federal Reserve Bank cut the federal funds rate to 3.5% this morning before markets opened. This was obviously and openly in response to stock markets around the world ‘in panic’ or ‘crashing’ over the last four days.

Here’s how the Fed couched it’s latest action (emphasis mine):

The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

Fed Policy Statement on Surprise 75BP Rate Cut

What those who have an interest in real estate should remember is the Fed controls short-term interbank rates - not mortgage rates. While there is a trickle-down effect to consumers with variable rate consumer debt (think credit cards and home equity lines), Fed rate cuts generally send mortgage rates higher.

Surprisingly, mortgage bond trading has been positive, though. Retail fixed rates for prime borrowers have been reported as low as 5.5%. So the combined effect right now is positive as borrowers have lower debt service and lower mortgage rates. Time will tell, but I firmly believe pricing will worsen as the market digest this unusual move. The news is extremely inflationary and will eventually send rates higher.

The other piece of the puzzle that I think will send rates higher is that the domestic bond market relies heavily on foreign central banks and investors. If those banks are rushing to save their own markets/economies, how much will they have to invest in US markets that are conservatively described as defective? So if demand falls, prices fall and yields/mortgage rates are forced upward.